Future scenarios and options

Baselines and
long-term monitoring
Future scenarios
and options
Dialogue and
open data
Partnerships and
joined-up science
Insight and
oversight


The Forest Monitoring and Improvement Program will develop scenarios for the future of NSW forests. These will include alternative futures that emphasise different forest values and community expectations from the short to long-term. Projected changes in climate will be incorporated into all scenarios. The current work to define baselines, trends and drivers will provide a better understanding of factors influencing change in NSW forests. This will provide a solid foundation and tools to evaluate future scenarios.

Methods to integrate specialist models will be investigated to provide a holistic understanding of impacts on forest values at the landscape scale to evaluate scenarios. This work will assist policy-makers to make informed, evidence-based decisions about the future management of forests. Scenarios will be grounded in plausible policy decisions and sound science.

The approach

The NSW Forest Monitoring Steering Committee has endorsed an approach to develop future scenarios for NSW forests. The plan seeks to draw on existing knowledge and expertise on strategic scenario development across the NSW Government and its knowledge partners.

The first in a series of interactive workshops was held on 16 September 2021. A short presentation can be found here.

The process is being facilitated by Professor Peter Kanowski (ANU Fenner School of Environment and Society) with expert input from Dr Simon Ferrier (CSIRO), futurist Adjunct Professor Steve Cork (ANU Crawford School of Public Policy) and resilience expert Dr Steven Lade (ANU Fenner School of Environment and Society and Stockholm Resilience Centre).

All NSW Government agencies responsible for managing or monitoring NSW forests across all tenures are involved through members of the NSW Forest Monitoring Steering Committee members or their nominees.

The baselines, trends and drivers work of the Forest Monitoring and Improvement Program is providing a deeper understanding of factors influencing change in NSW forests. This will provide a solid foundation and tools to evaluate future scenarios.