Wood supply

The program will establish a baseline for wood supply from native hardwood state forests and monitor trends of how the conditions of the approval can affect wood supply over time.

Baselines and trends in wood supply

Monitoring the trend in actual harvest volumes and wood supply modelling will be used to:

  • indicate whether the Coastal IFOA conditions are affecting wood supply over time and, if yes
  • evaluate volumetric impacts and the specific conditions that are impacting wood supply.

For the purposes of the monitoring program, ‘wood supply’ is defined as: The volume, species and grade of native forest high quality logs (large and small), that can be economically and sustainably supplied to the forestry industry from a given region over the short to medium term (5 to 20 years), while maintaining forest landscape values, as reflected in the Ecologically Sustainable Forest Management principles in Regional Forest Agreements, over the medium to long term (20 to 100 years).

To achieve this, the program will first evaluate trends in historic actual wood production data from 2003 to 2019 and the various factors influencing trends over time. Following this, the program will establish two baselines for predicted wood supply from coastal native hardwood state forests:

  • under conditions in the previous four IFOAs that form part of the new Coastal IFOA
  • under new conditions in the Coastal IFOA.

By evaluating modelled timber yield from both scenarios, the program can determine to what extent the Coastal IFOA conditions are likely to have an impact on wood supply.

Baselines and historical trends in wood supply 2003-2019

The program has established historical baselines and trends in wood supply for the Coastal IFOA region, specifically:

  • Historic actual wood supply from NSW coastal native state forests (2003-2019)
  • Drivers of change in wood supply from NSW coastal native forests (2003-2019).

Overall, the review found that total wood supply declined between 2003 and 2019 across the Coastal IFOA region. The largest decrease was associated with pulp log supply (approximately 40 percent), while high quality sawlog supply decreased by around 15 percent. Overall supply, and in particular high-quality log supply, was aligned to wood supply agreements.

The review identified the three primary drivers that influenced wood supply:

  • Resource availability influenced by the area of forest available for timber production, forest productivity and species mix, environmental regulation, industry and regional policy, silviculture, and yield modelling constraints.
  • Market forces influenced by wood supply agreements, demand for timber products and industry economics.
  • Supply chains influenced by harvesting and haulage systems, and wood products processing and distribution systems.

The most significant historical drivers over the review period relate to resource availability (particularly net harvest area), modelling constraints, land use policy and industry policy decisions.

The analysis was based on an extensive dataset of wood supply and related factors, including wood volume by product, grade and species delivered to various markets.

The final wood supply and trends report is available below.

Next stage

The next stage of the work will develop projected future wood supply over 100 years based on the Coastal IFOA Protocols and Conditions and the current condition of NSW state forests following the 2019/20 fires. Ongoing monitoring will compare actual wood supply against this projected baseline.