The program will establish a baseline for wood supply from native hardwood state forests and monitor trends of how the conditions of the approval can affect wood supply over time.
Baselines and trends in wood supply
Monitoring the trend in actual harvest volumes and wood supply modelling will be used to:
- indicate whether the Coastal IFOA conditions are affecting wood supply over time and, if yes
- evaluate volumetric impacts and the specific conditions that are impacting wood supply.
For the purposes of the monitoring program, ‘wood supply’ is defined as: The volume, species and grade of native forest high quality logs (large and small), that can be economically and sustainably supplied to the forestry industry from a given region over the short to medium term (5 to 20 years), while maintaining forest landscape values, as reflected in the Ecologically Sustainable Forest Management principles in Regional Forest Agreements, over the medium to long term (20 to 100 years).
To achieve this, the program will first evaluate trends in historic actual wood production data from 2003 to 2019 and the various factors influencing trends over time. Following this, the program will analyse the effect of implementing the Coastal IFOA conditions on wood supply over time.
Baselines and historical trends in wood supply 2003-2019
The program has established historical baselines and trends in wood supply for the Coastal IFOA region, specifically:
- Historic actual wood supply from NSW coastal native state forests (2003-2019)
- Drivers of change in wood supply from NSW coastal native forests (2003-2019).
Overall, the review found that total wood supply declined between 2003 and 2019 across the Coastal IFOA region. The largest decrease was associated with pulp log supply (approximately 40 percent), while high quality sawlog supply decreased by around 15 percent. Overall supply, and in particular high-quality log supply, was aligned to wood supply agreements.
The review identified the three primary drivers that influenced wood supply:
- Resource availability influenced by the area of forest available for timber production, forest productivity and species mix, environmental regulation, industry and regional policy, silviculture, and yield modelling constraints.
- Market forces influenced by wood supply agreements, demand for timber products and industry economics.
- Supply chains influenced by harvesting and haulage systems, and wood products processing and distribution systems.
The most significant historical drivers over the review period relate to resource availability (particularly net harvest area), modelling constraints, land use policy and industry policy decisions.
The analysis was based on an extensive dataset of wood supply and related factors, including wood volume by product, grade and species delivered to various markets.
The final wood supply and trends report is available below.
Impacts on wood supply
We further engaged Indufor to review the actual quantity and quality of wood supplied from harvesting operations conducted under the Coastal IFOA Conditions and protocols and how the implementation of the Coastal IFOA has influenced wood supply at the operational and landscape scales.
A final report is expected in mid-2023.
Additionally, updated long-term wood supply projections are being prepared by the Forestry Corporation of NSW for the five-yearly review of the NSW Regional Forest Agreements. This will provide the projected baseline against which future actual wood supply will be compared. These projections take into account the conditions of NSW state forest following the 2019/20 wildfires and subsequent recovery.